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\begin{document}

\title{Influence of topography and winds on the distribution of water masses on the Antarctic Continental Shelf}



\author[1]{Christopher Y. S. Bull}%
\author[2]{Christopher Y S Bull}%
\author[3]{David R Munday}%
\author[2]{Adrian Jenkins}%
\affil[1]{Affiliation not available}%
\affil[2]{Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University}%
\affil[3]{British Antarctic Survey}%


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  \date{June 01, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Central to improving our understanding of ocean temperature change on
Antarctica's continental shelf is a better understanding of how the
ocean circulation drives the onshore flux of warm deep waters across the
shelf break. This study uses a primitive equation ocean model to explore
how the circulation regime and changes in surface stress influence the
temperature structure on Antarctica's shelf seas. As the shelf
temperature changes are largely driven by ocean circulation changes,
understanding these becomes our focus. A simple barotropic model is used
to describe the linear theory of the difference between throughflow and
gyres regimes, and their expected response to changes in forcing. This
theory informs our understanding of the barotropic circulation response
of the primitive equation model where a momentum and heat budget confirm
that over the simulated equilibrated timescales with surface forcing
changes, the response is first-order linear. Consistent with previous
findings, we find that climate change projection-like wind shifts
(stronger westerlies that shift south) have a direct influence on Ekman
processes across the shelf break and upwell warmer waters onto the
shelf. We also find that the circulation regime (throughflow or gyre --
determined by basin geometry), influences the mean shelf temperature and
how susceptible the existing shelf temperatures are to changes in
surface stress. While the throughflow regime can experience a complete
transition in on-shelf temperatures when the transition between westerly
and easterly winds shifts southward, we find relatively modest warming
at the coast in a gyre regime. Combinations of these regimes also
experience coastal warming under a constant positive offset in the
winds.{}%
\end{abstract}%



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